Part 1: Spatial Analysis - 4/6/12

Key Findings:

I did not make this excellent map. There are a large number
of very intelligent readers/analysts contributing to this
blog, and I appreciate all their hard work.

• The offender is expanding his or her target radius. 
• The offender is expanding his or her locations targeted.
• Even though expanding and varying locations, the offender still targets the Cathedral of Learning, the symbolic "heart" of the university.
• The targets are pushing west, into UPMC and research building areas. 
• However, all buildings are still primarily University of Pittsburgh buildings and not hospitals, memorials, or non-Pitt residences/businesses.
• This evidence strongly supports that the suspect does indeed have some connection to the university, whether they are a student, employee, or have some unknown motive against the school.

I noted earlier a comment about the possibility of it being a disgruntled/frustrated Western Psych employee. I didn't mean to add insult to injury in any way, and I apologize. I want to make clear that this is JUST a hypothesis, and any UPMC anger directed at Pitt, while possible is unlikely right now given the lack of connecting evidence.

And whoever is keeping that Google Doc up to date, please let me know who you are. That is some freaking amazing work. 

Update: Bomb threat #13 at Thackeray Hall

Looking back to last week, there were two bomb threats last Wednesday, March 28. I was thinking there was a high likelihood of another occurring today, likely around 10:30 AM. Just as I was tweeting out my thoughts, sure enough, the ENS called and said there was a general bomb threat for Thackeray Hall.

So I nailed the time element (and note, I anticipate another today, sometime in the afternoon or evening). The location is new though, but still within the radius of previous threats. 


I know this isn't the sexiest visualization available, but I do have a day job.


I'm actually really surprised no threat was called in during Congressman Altmire's presentation at the Soldiers and Sailors museum last night. It seems the perpetrators aren't aiming for particular events or situations, but rather just hoping that the sheer volume of threats will cause as much chaos as possible. More to come I'm sure.

Spatial Analysis

Key Findings:

• Seven of the twelve bomb threats were located at the Cathedral of Learning, the symbolic center of campus.
• The perpetrators expanded into other buildings as time passed, but all remain University of Pittsburgh buildings.

• Note: Carnegie Mellon University is nearby. Tighter security at this school may be the reason it hasn't been targeted, but if the perpetrators are Pitt students, it is unlikely they are familiar with the CMU campus, or have the proper access.
• While Cathedral of Learning bomb threats were mostly found in men's rooms, all threats outside of the Cathedral were found in women's rooms.
• Either one of the perpetrators is a woman, which is highly unlikely (statistically), OR
• There is a single male perpetrator who is bold enough to enter restroom's, but not necessarily at a central, crowded building like the Cathedral of Learning. He goes into women's restrooms in "emptier" buildings on the outskirts of campus
• In this scenario, it is also likely that the perpetrator began to see a ramp up in security at the Cathedral and expanded to other buildings
• Finally, it is likely if there is more than one perpetrator, one of them could keep watch while the other wrote threats in women's restrooms. This scenario seems increasingly more unlikely as students are becoming more annoyed by the bomb threats, and thus more suspicious of unusual activity.